democrats square off tonight, republicans to battle may 3rd...
This political season reminds me of Christmas. Especially the Christmas's of the 80's and 90's.
Not because I have the feeling that it's Christmas morning and waiting under the tree is a super-duper present I had been hoping for. And not because I have any renewed feelings of hope, love and grace.
It is because this Presidential election cycle has begun ridiculously early. It reminds me of how every year as I grew up and entered adulthood, the stores and other businesses would start puttin up the Christmas decorations a little earlier every year. it got to the point where the yuletide cheer started hitting the stores seemingly before halloween, let alone thanksgiving.
Fortunately, in the past few years, the tide seems to have subsided a little bit, at least "offline."
But the Presidential cycles, every 4 years seem to continue the trend of starting earlier and earlier. The campaign began for some of these candidates before the final results were even in last November.
And tonight begins the debates, with the democrats taking center stage. the republicans will have their moment in the sun on May 3rd.
And while it's really not very appealing to most to start debating what the next group of hopefuls will do almost 2 years before they will have that opportunity, it is an overall good thing in my opinion to begin these debates now.
I have written, and others have as well, about the sheer expense of running for President in 2008. Some speculate that the total amount spent will exceed a billion dollars before anyone is sworn in. This predicted perception has created a vacuum between the "rockstar" candidates that have raised upwards of 26 million dollars in the 1st quarter alone, and the rest of the pack which has averaged a few million in funds to compete.
This will be an opportunity for that pack to perhaps gain some much needed exposure going into the politically slow summer months. Maybe that exposure will translate into more supporters and more funding to actually compete on a reasonable level with the cash heavy front runners.
And what might get someone "over the hump" to the next level? In my opinion, the candidate, or candidates that could gain from this will do a few different things, and do them well.
1st, they will try to "look Presidential." That simply means they will convey an image that will allow the viewer to picture them as the Chief Executive. Of course, that's an intangible that will be much clearer as to "what people are expecting" will be conveyed after the debates via polling, reporting and research.
2nd, if they aren't Hillary Clinton, they don't want to come off as some "big bad man" attacking the "poor lil girl." Of course, every one of them want to see the NY Senator and former 1st lady knocked down a peg or 2, but all of them would also prefer someone else take the shot in case her political vengence is only strengthened from the attack.
3rd, to get the people's and press's ear, the pack candidate needs to have the "line of the night." One of the lines I expect to hear is the "we're not having a coronation blah, blah, blah" ... and perhaps the "i'm not running for vice president" line if a candidate is asked at this early stage about the willingness to be a runningmate. Al Sharpton and Howard Dean ruled this universe in the last cycle. It will be interesting to see who takes up that role here.
4th, a really good specific idea about stuff we care about would do someone some good for sure. But candidates are sometimes hesistant to be too specific, too early. Sometimes that will only cause that idea to be dragged thru the mud for the entire cycle. So, if a candidate goes this route, they usually would want to be pretty sure of their idea and be confident it can withstand the mud that will be thrown on it for political gain by others in the coming months.
Of all the candidates, the 3 "middle" ones have the best shot to make some strides tonight on the democratic side. Those being Dodd, Biden and Richardson respectively. Both Dodd and Richardson (who has a hispanic heritage) speak fluent Spanish. Expect that to be used. It may be especially favorable to Dodd, if he can beat Richardson to the punch. But that will all come down to the "luck of the draw." It probably would be smart for Dodd, especially, to have a back-up zinger line in spanish to use later in the debate.
Biden will probably try to make strides by emphasizing his experience and his plan out of Iraq, which has been growing in acceptance steadily since he introduced it last year. Biden will have to work a fine line betwen showing off his knowledge and depth without coming off pompous or bloviating.
Richardson's biggest strength will surely be his sense of humor and "regular guy" likeability. He is sure to mention his diplomatic experience as well, even touting his recent, Bush endorsed mission to North Korea.
Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel will work from the left. Kucinich will most likely try to steal the Sharpton mantle and try to fire off enough zingers that hopefully one or two will stick and make the news. And unless he is to be the next Howard Dean, Gravel will probably be as obscure come Friday as he was on Thursday morning.
Edwards, who is popular in Iowa, but not so much in New Hampshire, will try to gain some ground in a State he won in 2004. He currently is running 3rd or 4th in South Carolina. I think Edwards needs to have a good night almost as much as the "middle 3" do or he might find himself in that club of "2nd tier" candidates instead of the front runner press he has enjoyed.
For Barack Obama, this will be an opportunity to continue his charm campaign. Introducing America to the next generation of leadership. If no one goes after him or he doesn't have any major gaffes tonight, this debate can only serve to give him a bump in the polls.
And Hillary's quest will mostly be about appearing Presidential, as it will be for Barack. And like Barack, her personality and less tangible factors will probably have more to do with her success tonight than any plans or proposals. This will be the nation's 1st real opportunity to see Mrs. Clinton debate and it will be interesting to see what she has learned from her tenure in the Senate and from riding shotgun with Bill all these years. But of all the candidates, Hillary might have the most downside potential tonight. If she doesn't have a good night, for whatever reason, even if minor, expect the media to be all over it like 6 year olds after a soccer ball.
Of course, the "cluster-f*ck" format of 8 candidates on one stage will be limiting. Too bad these debate planners don't have some sense and perhaps do 2 groups of 4 instead so each candidate would get a chance to speak a bit more. Or break up the groups somehow to allow for more detailed statements from the hopefuls.
But it is what it is, and hopefully the debates will at least not be boring. Is it too late to book Sharpton?