Of course, all the usual caveats apply...
"It's way too early to make firm predictions."
"Dramatic changes in events could reshape things."
"Most Of These People Haven't Officially Announced"
And all that. But just for laughs, I want to give some thoughts on some early contenders and what may happen come 2008. First, a look at the GOP side of the fence.
John McCain- the aging Senator seems to have slipped from his early front runner status. That's in due, part, to his pro-Iraq stance and has outflanked even the President in his aggressiveness. That will win over the remaining hawks come 2008, but other conservative voters, who still "just don't like him" will be hoping for someone else to fill the republican ticket's shoes. By 2008, McCain's age might play a factor, but with medicine and science today, who knows...
Rudy Giulliani- "America's Mayor" will surely make a run, at least it looks like he will. His poll numbers have been strong, and seems to have won support beyond just the moderates of the party. Some social conservatives will have a hard time with his marital track record and stnces on some key social issues. But Rudy will be able to point to his cleaning up of Times Square and tough law enforcement record, in addition to his post 9/11 leadership to counter some of the flack. Rudy will surely have an easier time winning votes in the General election, as will McCain, but if I had to bet, I would say Rudy would win out over McCain in a head to head in some of the "Rubier red" states and thir primaries. Although a lot of "nose holding" would probably take place. And unfortunately, in most of those states, there will be other choices.
Sam Brownback- Will certainly champion the Christian right. How far outside of that base he will be able to win over is anybody's guess. In a recent "joint conference" setting on AIDS recently with the "Purpose Driven Life" flock, Brownback got zinged by Senator Barack Obama when trying to take Republican or Conservative "ownership" of God's house. Obama reminded Brownback that it is his house too. But hey, George Bush did pretty well in 2000 by building from the Christian right out. And before him, the far right wing pator, Pat Robinson showed pretty well in earlier primary races.
Duncan Hunter- The California Congressman announced his intention to run a couple a months ago with little fanfare. But I think this guy could be a darkhorse. He is big on immigration security and I think will be popular with the Christian base of the GOP. From there, if he gets his message out, in amongst all the dollars being spent by his competitors, he could gain enough steam to stay around long enough to catch enough attention of enough donors to be a serious contender. I think the congressman knows what he's up against, and I would not discount his candidacy. And if he makes the general election, his strong opposition to NAFTA and such should make him popular with labor groups.
Mitt Romney- The conservative Mormon from Massechucetts. In the end, that may be too much for too many people to swallow. I can't see serious evangelicals voting for someone of the Mormon faith, too many religious differences in the end. he doesn't seem to be a leader on anything republicans hold dear and his positions have sometimes waffled. Something he won't be able to survive if the GOP attack machine turns on him in the primary.
Of course others could pop in the race. People like Jeb Bush or Condi Rice and other names have been touted. We could be knee deep in Iraq by then, or out, or on our way out. The economy could turn up, down or sideways. I expect border security to be less of an issue by 2008, as I see some sort of bill on the horizon with the democrats. There will be objections on whatever is passed, but it will probably not be from the mainstream. But again, who knows what the republicans will be demanding from their nominee in 2008.
Now let's look at the Democratic side, which may be a little more wide open than we think.
Hillary Clinton- The early front runner hasn't announced, but everyone, well, almost everyone expects her to eventually announce her intention to run. She would be the 1st female President. Something I think will be more of a factor for her than anyone would really care to admit in this day and age. But few are arguing her credentials and even those who don't like her, seem to respect her political prowess and skill. Not to mention, having a most popular ex president as your husband cheerleading for you throughout the campaign will be a new force to be reckoned with. Bill Clinton could have a major impact on squashing her opponents, especially in the primaries. Expect her to run. Expect a strong campaign. But don't expect her to just walk away with it. Throughout the debates that will happen before New Hampshire, Iowa, et al... expect teh phrase "this is a primary, not a coronation" to be used and similair lines to be used. And democrats seem to like a darkhorse, their front runners have been known to fade.
Barack Obama- I must admit here, I got his "Audacity Of Hope" for xmas, and am just about finished with it. It is a good book. A little wordy at times, but overall, a really good read. And if he runs, he will be dangerous. Anyone who saw his keynote speech in 2004 knows he is one of those speakers who just "have it." Reagan had it, King jr. Had it, Clinton had it, Kennedy had it and Barak has it. Will that lead him to the White House? Probably not. But Obama has some great ideas and I think the way he thinks is really going to apeal to a lot of people. He may not even run, but if he does, he will be dangerous.
John Edwards- Officiall threw his hat in the Presidential ring this week in New Orleans, where he was doing work on his antoi poverty campaign. I like John Edwards. And it wouldn't bug me to see him as President. I think he's somewhat honest and good hearted. He wouldn't be my first choice, and I get the feeling he wouldn't be most othre's 1st choice. Butif Hillary stubles, and Barack stays out, he could be the one standing in the end.
Joe Biden- Joe has made some moves, without "officially" throwing his hat in the ring. Depending on our Iraq situation, he could be more formidable than early polls would suggest. He's a guy who could use the debates to his advantage. Biden knows how to get a point across. And where some may see his "Dupontesque" pomposness getting in the way, he could be the right mix of experience and integrity the democrats are looking for. Until poeple start picking on his lying about his class rank in law school the last time around in addition to pretty much plagarizing JFK's words in a speech. Then there is his "Macaca" moment when he made a crack about Indian people and Duncan Donuts. Expect Joe to maybe be a cabinet member or Secretary Of State should whomever wins the nomination wins the election. Rest assured, it won' t be Biden being sworn in come Jan. 2008. Unless maybe it's for vice-president.
Dennis Kucinich- The bachelor congressman from Ohio will once again be touting his refusal to sign on to George Bush's Iraq plan and his big time pro-american labor and enviromental stances. Issues that will matter to democratic voters. Unfortunately for Dennis, sometimes it's not the message, but the messenger. Kucinich is just not the right messenger. Not only is he harsh and brash to both the ears and eyes, but I think he kind of scares many democrats when they look at him and he looks like Mike Dukakis's nephew. If Obama runs, this candidacy is dead on the shores of Lake Erie. Obama will immediately take most of his support away on issues like the war in Iraq and labor. And Obama is just the more "TV friendly" face to deliver those messages.
Then the democrats too have other names being flung about. But Tom Vilsack can't even be the most popular guy in his home state of Iowa. John Kerry will never win the nomination again. Bill Richardson could be a serious contender if he ever gets off his duff and starts advertising. And if Al Sharpton runs again, he will probably once again be an entertaining sideshow of soundbytes and mis-spent money. Other names could emerge, but don't expect Howard dean to break his pledge where he traded party leadership for a 2008 run. And from the political capital Dean gained in leading the party to it's 1st big win in a long time, he won't need to.
I wanted to get these thoughts out of the way early. Now I can go back to writing about some other stuff As the 1st serious debates won't be happening until late next year.