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everyone put your Karnac hat on...
Published on November 2, 2006 By Sean Conners aka SConn1 In Current Events
Going into the weekend, no doubt, the election will be the dominat story. Experts tell us there are 7 key races where the Democrats can possibly obtain the majority. Here are my predictions on who will win each race. Feel free to add your own prediction.

Missouri - Talent vs. McCaskill

This one is called a toss up right now. Talent isn't as issues vulnerable as some like Santorum and Allen. I've seen polls putting each up by 5 points, and deadlocked.

Talent wins, 52 / 48

Montana - Burns vs. Tester

Burns has gained some momentum as of late, but the senior Senator is just carry ing too much baggage. He could pull off an upset, but I think tester, with no gaffes, will squeek it out.

Tester wins 51/49

New Jersey - Menendez vs. Kean Jr.

New jersey tends to buck national trends, and this is no exception. despite Kean jr.'s over the top corruption charges and good family name. New Jersey will stick with Menendez.

Menendez wins 55/45

Ohio - DeWine vs. Brown

Ohio's the central front on the war against corruption and unfortunately for republicans, they are taking the brunt of it.

Brown wins 54/46

Pennsylvania - Santorum vs. Casey

Santorum may be able to point to some polls showing he's "not behind by double digits", but he is behind. Way behind.

Casey wins 57/43

Rhode Island - Chaffee vs. Whitehouse

the RINO from Rhode Island will not suffer when he is put out of work. He's a nice guy, but his Senate career is over.

Whitehouse wins 52/48

Virginia - Allen vs. Webb

Allen's gaffes and most recently the assault on a guy asking a question by his people will weigh heavier than any of the breathing caused by Jim webb's fiction about the Vietnam War.

Webb wins 51/49

Tennesee - Corker vs. Ford Jr.

This will be the one that everyone tunes in for. Unfortunately, where would like to see an upset, Tennesee won't be sending the first African American Senator from the south.

Corker wins 55/45

In the House, the democrats will get their majority and maybe a few to spare. I'll call it a pick up of 18-22 for the democrats.

Off the radar, the democrats could get their majority via the Arizona Senate race where John Kyl, the republican incumbant is said to be in some trouble. And I have a feeling we may hear about a few more races that are a surprise before the night is over.

Come Wed. tho, The democrats will control the House, and the Rrepublicans will probably eek out a majority in the Senate.

Then it will be time to get to work, for all Americans.





sidenote: please don't take this too seriously, it's all in fun...
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Comments
on Nov 02, 2006
Add an 8th-- Arizona
on Nov 02, 2006
In Arizona, Early Voting Favors Democrats 2 Nov 2006 18:49 GMT
... suggests tracking of Arizona's early voting caused national Democrats ... national Democrats to into U.S. Senate candidate Jim Pederson's (D) campaign: "In our October 8 to ... these early voters, Jim Pederson is leading Jon Kyl by 4 points: 44% for Pederson compared ...
on Nov 02, 2006
Don't forget Oregon.

Walden - Voison

It's like a 50-49 split in the opinion polls the last i heard.

on Nov 02, 2006
Add an 8th-- Arizona

did ya read the article gene? lol

i mentioned arizona as a darkhorse upset.
on Nov 02, 2006
Don't forget Oregon.

Walden - Voison

It's like a 50-49 split in the opinion polls the last i heard.

that could be one of the surprises i mentioned,,,we will see...

on Nov 03, 2006
any house predictions?
on Nov 03, 2006
i think i'm goanna up my house prediction , based on trends i see, to 22-26 seats
on Nov 03, 2006
I think Walden will edge out Voison, barely.

I think the dem's will come close, but fall a seat or two short.

But, that's just my prediction.

~L
on Nov 03, 2006
I think the dem's will come close, but fall a seat or two short.

house or senate?
on Nov 06, 2006
State Democrat Republican Date Len Dem GOP Ind Pollster
Arizona Jim Pederson Jon Kyl* Nov 02 3 41% 49% Mason-Dixon
California Dianne Feinstein* Dick Mountjoy Nov 04 3 60% 31% SurveyUSA
Conn. Ned Lamont Alan Schlesinger Nov 04 3 38% 9% 49% SurveyUSA
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Nov 04 3 59% 36% SurveyUSA
Florida Bill Nelson* Katherine Harris Nov 02 3 60% 31% Zogby
Maryland Ben Cardin Michael Steele Nov 03 3 47% 44% Mason-Dixon
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Nov 04 3 52% 42% SurveyUSA
Michigan Debbie Stabenow* Mike Bouchard Nov 02 3 53% 37% Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Mark Kennedy Nov 01 1 54% 40% Rasmussen
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Nov 04 4 49% 45% Gallup
Missouri Claire McCaskill Jim Talent* Nov 03 3 46% 45% Mason-Dixon
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 04 1 50% 48% Rasmussen
Montana Jon Tester Conrad Burns* Nov 03 3 50% 41% Gallup
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 45% 42% Monmouth U.
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 48% 41% Mason-Dixon
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 50% 40% Gallup
New Jersey Bob Menendez* Tom Kean, Jr. Nov 03 3 50% 42% Marist Coll.
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Nov 02 3 50% 44% Mason-Dixon
Ohio Sherrod Brown Mike DeWine* Nov 03 10 62% 38% Columbus Disp.
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Rick Santorum* Nov 02 3 52% 39% Mason-Dixon
Rhode Island S Whitehouse L Chafee* Nov 03 3 48% 45% Gallup
Rhode Island S Whitehouse L Chafee* Nov 02 3 45% 46% Mason-Dixon
Tenn Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 04 1 47% 51% Rasmussen
Tenn Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 04 4 46% 49% Gallup
Tenn Harold Ford Bob Corker Nov 03 3 38% 50% Mason-Dixon
Utah Pete Ashdown Orrin Hatch* Nov 03 4 31% 61% Mason-Dixon
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Nov 03 3 46% 45% Mason-Dixon
Virginia Jim Webb George Allen* Nov 03 3 46% 49% Gallup
Washington Maria Cantwell* Mike McGavick Nov 02 3 54% 38% Mason-Dixon

the above is the latest polling data on the senate
on Nov 08, 2006
well, so far, if webb and tester hold, the only one i missed was talent / mccaskill. and watching the results last night, i thought she was gonna lose up until around midnight or so when she pulled ahead. that race was the toughest for me to call, and i think i wrote both talent's and mccaskill's name in the orig. article as the winner at least twice, finally settleing on talent because i figured he didn't have a ny "firing offenses" and his get out the vote operation was big.

overall, my call was a little conservative, but 6 for 7 is pretty damn good. as good as anyone on tv who made predictions.

on the house side, they may have exceeded my expectations slightly, but i was in the ballpark as much as anyone.