Thoughts on the V.P. contenders and prospects...
The race seems to be on for the Vice Presidential candidate. Unlike past elections, where most candidates for President have announced their choice for the #2 on the ticket at the conventions, this year's compressed schedule has left the time necessary to make a prudent choice in advance.
And it could work to their advantage. Past races have made the issue of the relevance of the V.P. a debatable one.. But even if 2 people can't agree that the choice will definitely have an impact on the ballot box, it is easy to see that it can. The selection I am sure will be a careful one. I am sure all the factors of experience, geoography, charachter and so forth will play into the choice.
But in sort of choosing one in advance( the nominee won't be official, just like Kerry's nomination until the convention. ) the Democrats will be able to "test market" the choice. Although I am sure they will be able to do that over the next month or 2 (an announcement is said to be slated for late May) by leaking out some "short list" names. But if their choice doesn't seem quite right, they will still hold the option of choosing another in Boston. The "2 bites at the apple" could indeed serve them well.
With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the potentials. Amongst the top contenders in my view, would be the following...
(in no particular order)
1) John Edwards
2) Dick Gephardt
3) Bob Graham
4) Bill Nelson
5) Gen Wes Clark
6) Bill Richardson
7) Sam Nunn
8) Max Cleeland
9) Hillary Clinton
10) John McCain
11) Mark Warner
12) Janet Napolitano
13) Ed Rendell
14) Evan Bayh
15) Joe Biden
That is who I would feel as being the "top 15" contenders. Again, that list was in no particular order, but if we were to order it, I would probably put it something like this,,,counting down...from least likely or adventageous to most likely or advantageous...
15) Evan Bayh...good looking guy, deserves to be a contender,,,,but lacks enough experience and recognition for anything to gain many votes....won't lose any, but won't gain.
14) Bill Nelson...better name recognition and experience,,,but too controversial and could carry a high negative rating,,,has a voice / face that scares children, in my humble opinion. could just as likely lose as many votes as he would gain in florida. And in my opinion, florida can be won without picking a VP from the state. By the fall I don't expect florida to be as "in play" as people think it will be.
13) Hillary Clinton...this gets fueled more by GOP pundits looking to stir up controversy more than it is realistic. And Hillary has been a great "scare tactic" to raise money for the right. But I don't expect Hillary to get the nod...New York is gonna go to Kerry anyway.
12) Joe Biden...I like Joe, he may be my personal favorite, or at least amongst them. But alas, Joe hails from lil old Delaware and despite great clout and creditbility with just about everyone, except if you have a problem with the chemical companies like DuPont who support him heavily...but aside from a few old hippies , Joe , in my mind would make one hell of a contender,,,but if geography is considered,,,he goes right off the short list as delaware almost always goes democrat.
11) John McCain...Chris Matthews really likes this ticket, and so do I. But it probably isn't going to happen. But if it did,,,can you say landslide? The only thing I could see getting McCain to be on a bi-partisan ticket is a major negative event for the republicans...and that might not even do it,,,but it would be great if it did,,,historic even. McCain did show his beautiful honesty over ideology true colors recently tho when he called for republicans to stop attacking Kerry on defense, where he is by no means, except by a misleading ads means,,,weak.
10) Ed Rendell...The Pennsylvania governor didn't get there by being an expert on everything. He got there,, just as he became mayor of philadelphia with a mandate by being about the most likeable politician on the planet. Ed is the kind of guy you would want to hang out with,,,anywhere, anytime. But that may not be enough for him to get the nod...he may gain votes, but he may be cannon fodder for a schooled debater like Dick Cheney. I would like this ticket, but I fear I may be in a minority there.
9) Janet Nepolitano...She's a woman, who's a governor,,,who no one knows of...a woman would be great on the ticket, and she brings arizona and possibly more of the southwest,,,but a lack national exposure could dampen her chances.
8) Dick Gephardt...For years now, Dick Gephardt's name has become synonymous with worker rights and defending the little guy....He brings Missouri, which is a key swing state...He could be the guy, and may make the short list,,,but i'm just not sure his attacks in the primary don't hurt his chances as much. Dick will be campaigning for Kerry regardless of getting the nod,,,so it may be better to go with someone else.
7) General Wesley Clark...The good General brings more military and foreign policy experience to the table. Clark also is strong in the southwest, and may even be able to swing an old GOP state to the democrats. But his lackluster campaign, despite a really good message may have hurt his chances. His wife Gert is reportedly not too enthused with hitting the trail again.
6) Bill Richardson...New Mexico's governor is another one of my personal favorites. If he wasn't so adamant about not seriously seeking the position, he may be up the list higher. He brings a n expertise on terrorism and foreign policy thru past work. Executive leadership thru his role as governor. He is also latino, which may swing that wote hard to the left and from what I can see has almost no negatives...I hope he's just being coy in those interviews
5) Bob Graham...Florida's other white meat, Bob Graham seems to have cleaned up his act since becoming a little more radical than some were comfortable with in the primaries. That combined with the sometimes "Steve Forbes like" scary look in his eyes is why I may not choose Bob. Plus, like I said, the Florida in play thing is being overblown in my mind. I expect West Virginia and ohio to be more in play. But people keep talking about him,,,but I think that may be due to graham campaigning for the job harder than anyone else.
4) John Edwards....we all know why, the good and the bad,,,a lot of people like him as the #2,,,I could go with it but wouldn' t be jumping up and down with joy...well, maybe a little.
3) Max Cleeland....The former Georgia congressional member was the target of what some consider to be about the most unscrupulous attack campaign ever. that reminder of 2000, combined with cleeland's military service and great speaking ability could get him the nod...Kerry does like having him around on the trail apparantly.
2) Mark Warner...I never thought about this guy until the Jefferson something or other banquet in Virginia during the primaries there...And boy was I blown away by him...This guy won in Virginia as a proud democrat and could carry more southern states possibly,,,He could at least make the republicans waste much in the way of rescources if he was down there stirring up trouble and votes.
1) Sam Nunn,,,May be the perfect candidate...strong democrat,,,from Ga....universally respected and credible...big time experience at just about everything including being "the man" in the senate when Reagan was modernizing the military...supported and got many of his programs thru,,,been a "bi-partisan" guy throughout his career.
Of course, there are others, like Jay Rockefeller from West Virginia and Congressman Ford of Tennesee. It will be interesting to see who amonst these contenders and who else might show up on the "short list" as the decisions get closer. It will also be interesting to see if they take advantage of their unique "2 bites at the apple" advantage if things don't look good for the 1st choice.
We shall see,,,,